Hezbollah Weighs Risks of Backlash at Home in War With Israel

A day after the assassination of a senior commander of a militant faction, the group vowed to retaliate. More than two weeks later, however, the response has not come as the faction strikes a delicate balance between seeking vengeance and the risks of a backlash. Lebanon is already deep in turmoil from a yearslong political and economic crisis. The country has careened from one crisis to the next since a civil war broke out in 1975. And if the faction ends up in another punishing war now, the nation could well turn against it. Lebanon is made up of a multitude of factions and sects and it has been controlled for years by an ineffectual caretaker government. The faction, backed by a certain country, is both part of the government and considered the real power underpinning Lebanon. As the dominant political and military force in the entire country, the faction has everything to lose and knows it must tread carefully. The group has cemented its position over the last three decades after outmaneuvering its domestic foes in a political system that divides power by sect. The faction has amassed a large and potent arsenal and is more powerful than the national military. It controls or has oversight of the country’s most important infrastructure. And it has lifted up its constituents in the process, empowering, enriching, and providing services to its followers, a historically marginalized sect. Many of the faction’s followers now benefit from a plethora of services, including quality healthcare, free education, and even a youth program. Meanwhile, a broken and broke state struggles to provide even the most basic services for all its citizens. And no other political party has the resources or organization to provide for their own sect as well as the faction.