The US labor market has been resilient in the face of various challenges such as inflation, interest rate hikes, pandemic effects, and geopolitical uncertainty. Despite these factors, monthly job gains have exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate has remained at or below 4% for 30 consecutive months. Economists predict that job gains will continue to be strong and steady, although they may gradually cool down. However, there are signs that the economy is slowing, consumer spending is decreasing, and workers are feeling less secure. The upcoming jobs report could provide insight into whether the job market is stable or weaker than expected. There is a divide between the establishment survey, which shows robust job growth, and the household survey, which indicates a drop in employment. Layoff activity has been increasing, and the number of permanent job losers has risen. Although layoffs are currently higher than in previous years, they have not reached concerning levels. Immigrants have played a significant role in job growth, and their impact on the labor market has become a contentious issue in the presidential election. The average hourly earnings are expected to grow at a slower rate in June, and labor force participation rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. Some employers are seeking to hire more part-time workers, which may suggest a softening labor market.
